J.M.C. Hutchinson, 1999. Bet-hedging when targets may
disappear: optimal mate-seeking or prey-catching trajectories and the stability
of leks and herds. Journal of Theoretical Biology 196:3349.
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doi: 10.1006/jtbi.1998.0817 to access article via journal.
The technique has been taken further by Frederick Crabbe of the U.S. Naval Academy, Computer Science Department:
Crabbe, F.L. 2007. Compromise strategies for action selection. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. 362:15591571. [See also the supplementary material.]
Crabbe, F.L. 2005. On compromise strategies for action selection with proscriptive goals. Proceedings of Modeling Natural Action Selection.
Crabbe, F.L. 2004. Optimal and non-optimal compromise strategies in action selection. Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Simulation of Adaptive Behavior (SAB).
At least the latter two papers are downloadable from his website.
In correspondence, we have discussed the necessity of using quadratic rather than linear interpolation. My further analyses suggest that linear regression can be adequate, but that quadratic often yields greater accuracy (each involved interpolation of logged values, in contrast with results reported in the supplementary material to Crabbe, 2007). With rather flat fitness landscapes (low probabilities of disappearance), both can be inadequate.
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